Sellwood Insights Regular, timely updates about our firm, markets, and our investment research.
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October 16, 2023
Download (PDF, 358KB) Third Quarter 2023: Markets on Summer Sabbatical Surging yields on longer-term government bonds interrupted the steady market rally that had so far characterized 2023. The Russell 1000, which had been up nearly 20% for the year just two months prior in July, saw its momentum slow, settling for a 13% increase. The … Continue reading Third Quarter 2023 Market Snapshot →
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July 5, 2023
Download (PDF, 715KB) Second Quarter 2023: Don’t Stop Me Now Stocks continued to advance, shaking off the bear market of 2022, as several potential market disruptions failed to materialize. Unexpected global banking sector issues, including the second largest bank failure in U.S. history, were quickly dealt with by U.S. and European regulators, stemming off a … Continue reading Second Quarter 2023 Market Snapshot →
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May 30, 2023
The Treasury yield curve remains persistently inverted, implying that short-term bonds offer higher expected returns than intermediate- or long-term bonds. Given this information, does it make sense for intermediate-term bond investors to seek those higher returns by shortening the duration of their bond portfolios? A Thought Experiment: Two Ways to Hold Bonds for Five Years … Continue reading Bond Investing When the Yield Curve is Inverted →
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April 4, 2023
Download (PDF, 481KB) First Quarter 2023: Resilient Economy, Weak Banks, Swift Intervention Softening inflation, a budding banking crisis, and a strong overall economic picture caused investors to re-evaluate their expectations for future interest rates in the first quarter. As a result, many of 2022’s trends – of lower asset prices in general, investor preferences for … Continue reading First Quarter 2023 Market Snapshot →
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March 24, 2023
Note: These assumptions are now outdated. Our current capital market assumptions and our white paper documenting their construction can always be found on our Capital Market Assumptions page. Sellwood’s 2023 Capital Market Assumptions represent our best current thinking about future returns. They are the essential building blocks of the asset allocation work we perform for clients. Each … Continue reading 2023 Capital Market Assumptions →