Second Quarter 2023: Don’t Stop Me Now Stocks continued to advance, shaking off the bear market of 2022, as several potential market disruptions failed to materialize. Unexpected global banking sector issues, including the second largest bank failure in U.S. history, were quickly dealt with by U.S. and European regulators, stemming off a major credit crunch. … Continue reading Second Quarter 2023 Market Snapshot
The Treasury yield curve remains persistently inverted, implying that short-term bonds offer higher expected returns than intermediate- or long-term bonds. Given this information, does it make sense for intermediate-term bond investors to seek those higher returns by shortening the duration of their bond portfolios? A Thought Experiment: Two Ways to Hold Bonds for Five Years … Continue reading Bond Investing When the Yield Curve is Inverted
First Quarter 2023: Resilient Economy, Weak Banks, Swift Intervention Softening inflation, a budding banking crisis, and a strong overall economic picture caused investors to re-evaluate their expectations for future interest rates in the first quarter. As a result, many of 2022’s trends – of lower asset prices in general, investor preferences for value stocks over … Continue reading First Quarter 2023 Market Snapshot
Download our 2023 Capital Market Assumptions Report. Sellwood’s 2023 Capital Market Assumptions represent our best current thinking about future returns. They are the essential building blocks of the asset allocation work we perform for clients. Each year, though make incremental enhancements to our methods for gauging the future value of assets, we maintain our focus … Continue reading 2023 Capital Market Assumptions
The dozen years following the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis can be separated into two distinct market narratives, both of which are currently being unwritten. The first narrative period spanned the decade following the 2008 financial crisis and was characterized by low interest rates, low growth, lackluster aggregate demand, a global economy flirting with deflation, and … Continue reading 2023 Investment Themes: Changing Narratives