Every year, we update our forward-looking Capital Market Assumptions – the building blocks of our asset allocation work on behalf of Sellwood clients – as of December 31. Because equity and bond markets have changed so considerably in the first quarter of this year, we have taken the extraordinary step of updating those assumptions outside … Continue reading Capital Market Assumptions: Mid-Year Update
Download our 2020 Capital Market Assumptions White Paper. Sellwood Consulting’s 2020 Capital Market Assumptions contemplate a prospective lower-return environment caused by last year’s extraordinary valuation expansion in nearly every asset category. These 10-year, forward-looking assumptions of asset class return, risk, and correlation are the key input variables for our asset allocation work on behalf of clients. … Continue reading 2020 Capital Market Assumptions
This past March marked the 10-year anniversary of the market bottom that concluded the 2008/2009 Global Financial Crisis. The decade ending March 31, 2019 was a very interesting one for market observers and practitioners. We offer ten market observations from that decade, and, informed by history, ten predictions about what the next ten years may … Continue reading Ten Years, Ten Observations, and Ten Predictions
“The greatest scientists are artists as well.” — Albert Einstein Two questions: When was the US Equity market riskier for an investor: March 2009. The S&P 500 has just fallen 55% from its peak and the trailing ten-year standard deviation of S&P 500 returns was 21%. The market trades at a valuation of 13 times … Continue reading Modeling the Reality of Risk in 2019
Note: These assumptions are now outdated. Our current capital market assumptions and our white paper documenting their construction can always be found on our Capital Market Assumptions page. Sellwood Consulting’s 2019 Capital Market Assumptions are available. These 10-year, forward-looking assumptions of asset class return, risk, and correlation are the key input variables for our asset allocation work on behalf … Continue reading 2019 Capital Market Assumptions
Back in 2014, we wrote a piece, Who’s Afraid of the Big Bad Rates?, which argued that long-term investors in fixed income securities should not fear rising rates. At the time, we argued two things — first, that it is not the question of whether rates would rise, but rather the timing and pattern of … Continue reading Rise and Shine: Why Bond Investors Still Shouldn’t Fear Rising Rates
Note: These assumptions are now outdated. Our current capital market assumptions and our white paper documenting their construction can always be found on our Capital Market Assumptions page. Sellwood Consulting’s 2018 Capital Market Assumptions are available. These 10-year, forward-looking assumptions of asset class return, risk, and correlation are the key input variables for our asset allocation work on behalf … Continue reading 2018 Capital Market Assumptions
Loathe as we are to give any thought to short-term returns, the recent market correction has been interesting. The S&P 500 index peaked on January 26, before dropping approximately 2% over the next few trading sessions, and then dropping more precipitously during the week of February 5. On February 8, the market had declined by … Continue reading Postmortem of a Correction
Political language is designed to make lies sound truthful and murder respectable, and to give an appearance of solidity to pure wind. One cannot change this all in a moment, but one can at least change one’s own habits
Today marks the 10th anniversary of the birth, or at least the conception, of the Global Financial Crisis. The US equity market peaked, before the Global Financial Crisis began, on October 9, 2007.