The Treasury yield curve remains persistently inverted, implying that short-term bonds offer higher expected returns than intermediate- or long-term bonds. Given this information, does it make sense for intermediate-term bond investors to seek those higher returns by shortening the duration of their bond portfolios? A Thought Experiment: Two Ways to Hold Bonds for Five Years … Continue reading Bond Investing When the Yield Curve is Inverted
Download our 2023 Capital Market Assumptions Report. Sellwood’s 2023 Capital Market Assumptions represent our best current thinking about future returns. They are the essential building blocks of the asset allocation work we perform for clients. Each year, though make incremental enhancements to our methods for gauging the future value of assets, we maintain our focus … Continue reading 2023 Capital Market Assumptions
The dozen years following the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis can be separated into two distinct market narratives, both of which are currently being unwritten. The first narrative period spanned the decade following the 2008 financial crisis and was characterized by low interest rates, low growth, lackluster aggregate demand, a global economy flirting with deflation, and … Continue reading 2023 Investment Themes: Changing Narratives
2022 was a brutal year for markets, offering few places to hide to novice and professional investors alike. As we transition to 2023, the following questions are top of mind: How does 2022 market performance compare to history? What is the near-term outlook for a recession? How should recent economic data be interpreted? 2022 Investment … Continue reading 2022 Economic & Market Review
On the Governance Functions of Proper Benchmarking A portfolio’s benchmark is a tool that helps a client (asset owner) perform the essential governance function of monitoring the management of its portfolio. While a good benchmark will make this governance function easier, a bad benchmark will make it more difficult. This paper explains what a “good … Continue reading Good and Bad Benchmarks
Note: These assumptions are now outdated. Our current capital market assumptions and our white paper documenting their construction can always be found on our Capital Market Assumptions page. Sellwood’s 2022 Capital Market Assumptions portray a more optimistic environment for most asset classes, compared to a year ago. Investor expectations for inflation are a core building block for … Continue reading 2022 Capital Market Assumptions
Note: These assumptions are now outdated. Our current capital market assumptions and our white paper documenting their construction can always be found on our Capital Market Assumptions page. Sellwood Consulting’s 2021 Capital Market Assumptions contemplate a prospective lower-return environment, caused by last year’s declining yields and expanded valuations. These 10-year, forward-looking assumptions of asset class return, risk, and … Continue reading 2021 Capital Market Assumptions
Every year, we update our forward-looking Capital Market Assumptions – the building blocks of our asset allocation work on behalf of Sellwood clients – as of December 31. Because equity and bond markets have changed so considerably in the first quarter of this year, we have taken the extraordinary step of updating those assumptions outside … Continue reading Capital Market Assumptions: Mid-Year Update
Note: These assumptions are now outdated. Our current capital market assumptions and our white paper documenting their construction can always be found on our Capital Market Assumptions page. Sellwood Consulting’s 2020 Capital Market Assumptions contemplate a prospective lower-return environment caused by last year’s extraordinary valuation expansion in nearly every asset category. These 10-year, forward-looking assumptions of asset class … Continue reading 2020 Capital Market Assumptions
This past March marked the 10-year anniversary of the market bottom that concluded the 2008/2009 Global Financial Crisis. The decade ending March 31, 2019 was a very interesting one for market observers and practitioners. We offer ten market observations from that decade, and, informed by history, ten predictions about what the next ten years may … Continue reading Ten Years, Ten Observations, and Ten Predictions