Category Archives: Research

Research

2020 Capital Market Assumptions

February 18, 2020Capital Markets, ResearchSellwood Consulting

Note: These assumptions are now outdated. Our current capital market assumptions and our white paper documenting their construction can always be found on our Capital Market Assumptions page. Sellwood Consulting’s 2020 Capital Market Assumptions contemplate a prospective lower-return environment caused by last year’s extraordinary valuation expansion in nearly every asset category. These 10-year, forward-looking assumptions of asset class … Continue reading 2020 Capital Market Assumptions →

Ten Years, Ten Observations, and Ten Predictions

June 24, 2019ResearchSellwood Consulting

This past March marked the 10-year anniversary of the market bottom that concluded the 2008/2009 Global Financial Crisis. The decade ending March 31, 2019 was a very interesting one for market observers and practitioners. We offer ten market observations from that decade, and, informed by history, ten predictions about what the next ten years may … Continue reading Ten Years, Ten Observations, and Ten Predictions →

Modeling the Reality of Risk in 2019

April 12, 2019ResearchSellwood Consulting

“The greatest scientists are artists as well.” — Albert Einstein Two questions: When was the US Equity market riskier for an investor: March 2009. The S&P 500 has just fallen 55% from its peak and the trailing ten-year standard deviation of S&P 500 returns was 21%. The market trades at a valuation of 13 times … Continue reading Modeling the Reality of Risk in 2019 →

2019 Capital Market Assumptions

March 19, 2019Capital Markets, ResearchSellwood Consulting

Note: These assumptions are now outdated. Our current capital market assumptions and our white paper documenting their construction can always be found on our Capital Market Assumptions page. Sellwood Consulting’s 2019 Capital Market Assumptions are available. These 10-year, forward-looking assumptions of asset class return, risk, and correlation are the key input variables for our asset allocation work on behalf … Continue reading 2019 Capital Market Assumptions →

Rise and Shine: Why Bond Investors Still Shouldn’t Fear Rising Rates

March 7, 2018ResearchSellwood Consulting

Back in 2014, we wrote a piece, Who’s Afraid of the Big Bad Rates?, which argued that long-term investors in fixed income securities should not fear rising rates. At the time, we argued two things — first, that it is not the question of whether rates would rise, but rather the timing and pattern of … Continue reading Rise and Shine: Why Bond Investors Still Shouldn’t Fear Rising Rates →

2018 Capital Market Assumptions

February 21, 2018Capital Markets, ResearchSellwood Consulting

Note: These assumptions are now outdated. Our current capital market assumptions and our white paper documenting their construction can always be found on our Capital Market Assumptions page. Sellwood Consulting’s 2018 Capital Market Assumptions are available. These 10-year, forward-looking assumptions of asset class return, risk, and correlation are the key input variables for our asset allocation work on behalf … Continue reading 2018 Capital Market Assumptions →

Postmortem of a Correction

February 15, 2018Capital Markets, ResearchSellwood Consulting

Loathe as we are to give any thought to short-term returns, the recent market correction has been interesting. The S&P 500 index peaked on January 26, before dropping approximately 2% over the next few trading sessions, and then dropping more precipitously during the week of February 5. On February 8, the market had declined by … Continue reading Postmortem of a Correction →

“Fiduciary” Isn’t Enough

October 16, 2017Research, SellwoodSellwood Consulting

Political language is designed to make lies sound truthful and murder respectable, and to give an appearance of solidity to pure wind. One cannot change this all in a moment, but one can at least change one’s own habits

The Not-So-Lost Decade

October 9, 2017Capital Markets, ResearchSellwood Consulting

Today marks the 10^th anniversary of the birth, or at least the conception, of the Global Financial Crisis. The US equity market peaked, before the Global Financial Crisis began, on October 9, 2007.

The Right and Wrong Way to Design a Portfolio

May 22, 2017Researchsellwood

Our research department believes that the President’s agenda will stall in Congress, the Fed is on pace for two more rate hikes this year, and that we are seeing really promising economic growth out of Asia. As a result, we recommend that you shift a bit of money out of core bonds and into international equities for the next six months.